Axel Jean-Francois

August 28, 2025

The EBITDA Mirage

Why lenders only pay for profits they can trust—and how every funeral-home leader, from CEO to apprentice, can keep theirs real A COVID-Era Deal That Didn’t Survive Diligence In 2021, “Cascade Memorial” (Pacific Northwest) signed an LOI a bit over $4M. Lenders’ Quality-of-Earnings (QoE) review knocked nearly 20% for overstated preneed revenue and one-off COVID relief credits. The sellers walked; two years later the home sold closer to $3M. That gap wasn’t a market glitch—it was profits a lender didn’t trust. Why this matters (to everyone) • Public-company CFOs: figures must stand up to board and banker scrutiny. • Independent owners: no surprise haircuts at closing. • New apprentices: numbers tell your story—learn the clean version first. With near-9% rates and shifting service mix, lenders ask not just “How much did you make?” but “How confident are we you’ll make […]
July 25, 2025

When Deals Drag On: Spotting—and Surviving—Deal Fatigue in Funeral-Home Sales

Selling a funeral home isn’t like selling a used sedan. You’re passing on a community landmark—a place where neighbors mourned parents. Every extra week a sale drags feels like someone’s poking that legacy with a stick. Recently, our Foresight team—analysts, directors, and spreadsheet warriors—gathered to talk about deals that just won’t close. We tossed a QR code on the screen and asked: “Give us one word for deals that refuse to close.” The word cloud exploded: FRUSTRATED, EXHAUSTED, ANXIOUS, ANNOYED. Not a single “thrilled.” That’s deal fatigue. Let it fester, and it’ll torch value faster than a broken retort. Here’s your survival playbook: how to spot deal fatigue, why it happens, and how to keep your sale—and your sanity—on track. What Deal Fatigue Looks Like Deal fatigue is the slow-burn stress that creeps in when: Deadlines keep sliding. “Just another […]
June 23, 2025

Ask the Analyst: The Profit Playbook

Six Proven Plays to Lift Funeral-Home Margins — Without Losing Your Soul “Failing to prepare is preparing to fail.” — John Wooden Running a funeral home today is like steering a tugboat through fog while speedboats zip past. You can’t keep jacking up prices, and you definitely can’t cut corners on care—families remember both. What you can do is run smarter. The six plays below come from live field data (and a few hard-earned scars). Margins may be math, but leadership is still about people. PLAY 1 — Master the Fundamentals “Excellence is achieved by the mastery of the fundamentals.” — Vince Lombardi Why the Middle Wins Offer three crystal-clear packages—Good, Better, Best. Behavioral economists call it the Goldilocks effect; we call it a license to boost average ticket. 51 % of families in our 2025 study chose the mid-tier […]
March 28, 2025

From Anxious Employee to Resilient Owner: John Smith’s Wild Ride at Heritage Funeral Home

(Names and identifying details have been changed to protect privacy. But trust me—these challenges and triumphs are all too real in the funeral profession.) “Fire them, or pack your things.” That was the ultimatum John Smith heard on an otherwise ordinary morning. The funeral home owner—John’s longtime boss—wanted an employee gone for purely personal reasons, a vendetta completely unrelated to job performance. John knew in his gut: that’s not how you run a successful business, and it’s definitely not how you treat loyal staff. Within minutes, he grabbed his stuff, said goodbye to a place he’d poured years of effort into, and walked out. Enough was enough. In that moment, John realized: If I can’t stand by while someone’s wrongfully fired—maybe it’s time I run my own funeral home the right way. But let’s be real—big decisions aren’t always glamorous. […]
February 27, 2025

Ask the Analyst: High Rates, Hard Truths-How Funeral Homes Can Survive 2025’s Economy

Let’s cut to the chase: Ignoring the Fed right now is like pretending it’s still 2019—and that’s a fast track to trouble. Interest rates are higher than they’ve been in 23 years, inflation is cooling off slower than we’d like, and your staff could bail for better hours at Amazon if you blink wrong. Sound dramatic? Maybe. But for funeral home owners, it’s the new normal. A Quick Reality Check: Ryan’s Dilemma Take Ryan in Louisiana. Back when COVID-19 cases were sky-high and interest rates were rock-bottom, he invested in a beautiful new facility to better serve his community. Fast-forward to 2025: calls have dropped from the pandemic levels, and his adjustable loan rate keeps inching up. Now that once-profitable expansion is weighing him down—monthly payments ballooned, and Ryan’s scraping for every dollar just to break even. That’s exactly why […]
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