Matt Blackwell on 
As of today, we are almost 75% of the way through 2025 and here is what we have seen: Rates remain unchanged since the beginning of the year, however optimism towards cuts is rising after a negative revision on employment figures. This, combined with mounting political pressures placed upon the Federal Reserve, has the odds of rate cut in September sitting at 85%.
From a demographics perspective, the United States population curve remains as inverted as it has ever been, with over 30% of the population falling into the 55+ age range. Of that 30%, over 16% fall under the 65+ age range. With these factors in play, estimates for death rates in 2026 come in around 9.25 to 9.30 deaths per thousand, with theses figures expected to rise past in subsequent years.
Appetite and interest in the profession continue to rise as well, as so far in 2025 sales multiples have risen to a higher place than they were a year ago. In fact, from our data we can see that they are above 2020 and prior years multiples, second to only the peak covid ranges that were set in 2021 and 2022.
Now that these facts are out of the way, you may be asking yourself, well what does this mean for me, the business owner? At surface level, all of these factors, especially when combined, would suggest that the coming year could be a more favorable one if you are planning to sell your business. But take a step back and ask yourself, does this sound like anything you have heard before?
Ever since the Federal Reserve began hiking rates in early 2022, almost every other economist or Wall Street talking head has been calling for rates to come down after every single employment, inflation, or manufacturing print that could be construed as a positive. Despite this, rates continued to climb into 2024 and have remaining largely unchanged. The thesis for increased volume coming from an aging population has been around for the same amount of time. However, both from data and an anecdotal perspective, local owners and consolidators alike have yet to realize any meaningful increase that would reflect this. As for increased interest in the industry, it is there until it is not. These changes can stem from a combination of the two factors listed above, however a good portion of the time it can stem from internal, business specific issues.
Now, my points above still stand. I do believe we are at point where rates will likely be cut, that is only a matter of time until the death rate increases, and that there is a measurable increase in interest in the profession. However, the common denominator between these three factors is this: None of these are within your control as a business owner. Yes, they may bode well for you if they materialize, but they may also not. Which begs the question, what levers can you pull as owner to increase value, regardless of economic, demographic, or industry conditions?
Let’s go back to that second point about demographics. Again, we cannot say exactly when that wave of additional cases will come to fruition but barring any sci-fi level of medical advances in the next 3-5 years, it is absolutely coming. The answer in how you, the business owner, can best position yourself to benefit from these lies in preneed. Often times, there is a discourse surrounding the economic value of preneed that comes about when a business is changing ownership. From an accounting perspective, the economic value of preneed is zero. This is because it represents unearned revenue, meaning that for every dollar of worth there is a corresponding dollar liability. However, what it does is give a potential new owner some certainty regarding future revenue, and that certainty can be a compelling advantage when it comes to negotiations.
When was the last time you updated your prices? Stay with me here, I know this seems like the lowest hanging fruit possible and a convenient lever to pull, but it is important for more reasons than just the obvious. On one hand, you have likely seen the cost of almost everything rise both within your business and within your personal life. The cost of merchandise, the cost of supplies, and the cost of your employees. As a business owner, you have almost no choice but to keep up with this if you want to maintain a certain level of profitability. And of course, there is a direct correlation between profitability levels and the value of your business. Another point here is that most buyers are reluctant to raise prices immediately after an acquisition, as the transition period is often seen as a delicate time for customers and community relationships. By adjusting prices before you sell, you protect your margins today and remove a potential point of hesitation for a future buyer.
Alongside growing your preneed book and managing your prices, the condition of your facilities is one of the most visible and controllable drivers of value. Well-maintained buildings, grounds, and equipment not only create a strong first impression with families, but also show a potential buyer that the business has been cared for and will require minimal capital expenditures after purchase. Regular upkeep and repairs as well as strategic renovations help elevate the perception of your brand and help justify higher pricing. In fact, this is why the public consolidators spend anywhere from 4 to 10% of annual revenue on capital expenditures. In a sale scenario, a facility that is clean, functional, and aesthetic removes a major point of friction in negotiation and can make your business stand out.
The market, the Federal, and demographics always play their part, but these are all forces that are outside of your control. As a business owner, your real influence comes from the decisions you make internally. Building a strong book of preneed, ensuring your prices reflect today’s costs, and maintaining your facilities are all tools that put you in a position to capitalize when those tailwinds do arrive.